PRI Candidate Leads ahead of Mexico's Election

Mark Keller
June 28, 2012

Mexicans go to the polls on Sunday in an election that has appeared all but a foregone conclusion since early in the campaign. Most polls put the Institutional Revolutionary Party?s (PRI) Enrique Pe?a Nieto ahead of his two closest competitors with a double-digit lead, leaving those two?the Party of the Democratic Revolution?s (PRD) Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador and the governing National Action Party?s (PAN) Josefina V?zquez Mota?in a tight race for second place. Pe?a Nieto?s poll lead has observers questioning what the return of the PRI, which ruled Mexico for seven decades before 2000, will mean for the country. There are no runoff elections in Mexico; the candidate who wins the largest portion of votes takes office for one six-year term starting in December.

Pe?a Nieto has been the favorite among voters since he announced his candidacy for the PRI in November 2011. Still, he?s experienced slip-ups along the way. During a December book fair he failed to name three books that inspired him and, shortly after that, it surfaced that he had children out of wedlock. More recently, his campaign faced a challenge and protests from the #YoSoy132 student movement. But, as July 1 nears, Pe?a Nieto maintains a comfortable double-digit lead over his competitors.

How his top two rivals will fare is less clear. Since the start of the campaign in March, V?zquez Mota has seen her lead over ex-Mayor of Mexico City L?pez Obrador (better known as AMLO) diminish so that the two now poll neck-and-neck. While they polled within a margin of error over the past week, ADN Pol?tico?s ?Poll of Polls? showed AMLO?s lead over V?zquez Mota widening at the end of campaigning on June 27. This could owe to recent security snafus that potentially hurt the ruling-party candidate?s poll figures while AMLO?s campaign drew nearly half a million spectators in Mexico City on Wednesday.

Moreover, the election outcome could well be shaped by undecided voters, given that polls place them in the double digits. A Grupo Reforma poll reported these voters show a preference for AMLO, leading some to fear a repeat of 2006, when that candidate cried fraud after losing to President Felipe Calder?n by less than 1 percent. Still, these voters could stay home on July 1, reflecting the apathy some have noted during the presidential race. Analysts predict a voter turnout of around 60 percent.

The prospect of Pe?a Nieto?s victory also raises questions about the return of the PRI to Los Pinos. Before the 2000 election of the PAN?s Vicente Fox, the PRI ruled Mexico for more than seven decades with what Reuters called ?an iron first and frequent allegations of corruption.? As such, the PRI?s imminent return has raised some eyebrows. But as The Economist put it: ?If the PRI has managed to win its way back into Mexican hearts, that is partly a verdict on its opponents.? An article in The New York Times writes: ?clean elections and a free press are now taken for granted, but corruption is still rampant, poverty is widespread, economic growth has been slow and an army-led ?war on drugs? has resulted in a mind-boggling death toll.?

The reaction to a PRI return is mixed. Some, such as John M. Ackerman of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, believe a PRI comeback signals a return to old politics. ?The PRI has not cleaned up its act or modernized over the last 12 years,? Ackerman writes for The Los Angeles Times. ?To the contrary, it has deepened its networks of corruption and illegality in the territories it still controls.? Still others, such as the Council on Foreign Relations? Shannon O?Neil argue that ?Mexican democracy has evolved in ways that make a return to wholesale PRI dominance unlikely.? Mexico?s ex-Foreign Minister Jorge Casta?eda similarly argues that ?to fear an authoritarian restoration would be to deny everything that we have all achieved over the last 12 years.? Former New York Times reporter Alan Riding concludes what he believes a likely scenario: ?[I]f elected, Mr. Pe?a Nieto will try to please everyone and will disappoint many. And if he governs only for the PRI?s old pals, he can expect to hear from the Mexican street again.?

Learn More:

• Access a Mexico Election Guide from AS/COA Online for quick facts, links, social media information, and more.
• Mexican political blog Animal Politico explains what to expect from the elections over the next week.
• A piece in The Economist offers an analysis of the election, and what Pe?a Nieto?s return could mean for Mexico.
• Dueling op-eds in The Los Angeles Times by John M. Ackerman of the National Autonomous University of Mexico and former Mexican Foreign Minister and NYU Professor Jorge Casta?eda debate what a PRI presidency would entail.

Send questions and comments for the editor to: ascoa.online@as-coa.org.

See more in: ?Mexico, Democracy & Elections

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